August 2026 NOVA Market Data Is In: What NVAR's Newest Release Shows

The August numbers are here. On Monday, September 14, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) released its August 2026 market statistics, and the headline is one we have been tracking all year: the inventory story continues, with condos and attached homes leading the growth in what buyers can choose from. At the same time, the market is settling into a more measured pace, with closed sales down from a year ago even as prices held firm. This update walks through what the new release shows, where mortgage rates stand heading into Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, and the fall events worth your time across Prince William County.

I believe informed clients make better decisions, so I share only what I can verify from the published data. As always, my goal is to take the uncertainty out of buying or selling a home, one clear data point at a time.

The August 2026 NVAR Market Statistics, Released September 14

NVAR's August 2026 release reports 1,324 closed sales across the region, down 8.0% year-over-year from August 2025, while the median sold price rose about 2% compared with a year earlier. The report's own headline tells the story behind the numbers: "Northern Virginia Inventory Story Continues in August as Condos and Attached Homes Lead Growth." Active inventory kept building, and the growth continues to be led by attached homes and condominiums, the same pattern that defined the summer.

That is a meaningful shift from July's snapshot. For July, NVAR reported a region-wide median sold price of $750,000 (down 1.3% year-over-year, a mix-driven number rather than a broad price decline), active listings of 3,025 (up 19.6%), condo inventory up 41.1%, and attached home inventory up 33%. August adds one more month of evidence that the region is rebalancing: more to choose from, sales closer to a normal pace, and prices holding steady. For buyers, that translates into more time to compare homes and negotiate. For sellers, it means the detached single-family segment, where supply remains most constrained, still rewards the best-presented, best-priced homes.

Mortgage Rates: Still in the Mid-to-Upper 6% Band

The most recent Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, for the week ending Thursday, September 10, 2026, put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.76%, up from 6.71% the prior week and above the 6.35% reading of a year earlier. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09% in the same survey. Rates, as they have all year, sit in a band between roughly 6% and 7%, and each basis point matters when you are sizing a monthly payment.

The next benchmark lands the day after tomorrow's Fed decision: Freddie Mac's next PMMS reading is due Thursday, September 17. If you are planning to buy this fall, locking in now protects you while you shop, and I am happy to connect you with lenders I trust who can walk through your rate-lock options.

The FOMC Decision Arrives Wednesday, September 16

The Federal Reserve's rate decision is due Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Because this is a scheduled meeting, the Committee will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, giving the clearest picture yet of where policy sits heading into fall.

Expectations have shifted since early September. CME FedWatch now shows markets pricing roughly a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point increase to a 3.75% to 4.00% fed funds target, up from the roughly one-in-three odds seen in the first week of September, and J.P. Morgan strategists have moved to expect a hike. The context: the fed funds rate has sat at 3.50% to 3.75% since December 2025, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target with elevated energy prices tied to Iran-related supply disruptions, and the labor market has held resilient with unemployment near 4.1%. Chair Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole speech signaled he does not yet see meaningful improvement on inflation, which is why the hike odds have climbed.

For Northern Virginia home buyers and sellers, the reaction in mortgage markets matters more than the decision itself. Long-term mortgage rates do not move in lockstep with the fed funds rate, and they often have their decision priced in by the time the announcement is made. Whatever happens Wednesday, the regional story does not change: inventory is at its highest level in years, Prince William County remains the region's clearest value proposition, and buyers have more leverage than this market has offered in half a decade.

What This Means for Prince William County

For buyers, the expanding inventory of condos, townhomes, and attached homes is giving Northern Virginia shoppers options they have not had in years, while single-family homes still command the most competition. Get pre-approved, be clear on the neighborhoods you are weighing, and let the extra inventory work in your favor.

For sellers, well-priced, well-presented homes are still attracting serious buyers, particularly in the detached segment, and the fall window is strong: early September through mid-October is regularly the second-best listing season of the year, in part because the federal fiscal year begins October 1 and brings a fresh wave of demand into the corridor. With more options on the market, day-one pricing and presentation matter more than they did a year ago.

Fall Events Across Prince William County

With the Equinox approaching, the community calendar is in full swing. Here is what I am looking forward to in the weeks ahead:

• 2 Silos Brewing Co. Oktoberfest, September 18-20, in Manassas, billed as Northern Virginia's biggest Oktoberfest, with German beer, cuisine, live music, and family activities at 9925 Discovery Boulevard.
• Oktoberfest Weekend at Eavesdrop Brewery, September 19-20 in Manassas, with beer, live music, local vendors, and food.
• Manassas Latino Festival, Saturday, September 26, 11 AM to 6 PM at the Harris Pavilion in Old Town Manassas, celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month with live music, dance, food, and 50-plus exhibitors.
• Last Fridays at Park Central Plaza, Friday, September 25, in Manassas Park, with food, live music, and local vendors.
• Park Central Farmers Market, Saturdays from 9 AM to 1 PM through October in Manassas Park, a favorite weekend stop.
• 43rd Annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee, Saturday, October 3, 10 AM to 5 PM in Old Town Manassas, with 100-plus craft and community booths and live entertainment.
• Dale City Farmers Market, Sunday, October 4, 8 AM to 1 PM, hosted by Prince William County Parks and Recreation.
• Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House, Saturday, October 10, 10 AM to 2 PM at 9080 Manassas Drive, one of my favorites for families.

These are the moments that make this part of Virginia feel like home, and they are a big part of why families choose to put down roots here.

The Path Ahead

Two dates are worth circling for anyone considering a move: the FOMC decision on Wednesday, September 16, and the fresh August market statistics from the Prince William Association of Realtors, expected to publish soon, which will give us the county-level picture to match NVAR's regional release. I will keep monitoring both and share my analysis as the numbers land.

Whether you are buying, selling, or simply beginning to explore your options, I am here to help you make all the right moves with clarity and honesty. This market is full of opportunity for those who understand it, and I would welcome the chance to help you navigate it like family.