Manassas & NOVA
Market Report.

GG's Fiduciary Assessment

The Late-October 2026 Northern Virginia Housing Market

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As of late October 2026, the Northern Virginia real estate market is in a new phase defined by the most dramatic inventory growth in years. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR) released its September 2026 market statistics on October 16, revealing a market that continues to shift: the region's median sold price rose 4.2% year-over-year to $744,950, while closed sales totaled 1,250 units, down 7.5% from September 2025. The headline story remains inventory: active listings surged to 3,477 units, up an extraordinary 30.7% year-over-year, with months of supply up 29.5% to 2.5. New pending sales fell 16.2% to 1,204, total sales volume came to about $1.11 billion, down 8.7%, and average days on market held at 28 days, unchanged year-over-year. Alexandria was the one outlier within the region, with its city median sale price down 11.4% to $660,000.

The latest available data for July 2026 shows several notable developments. This week's key development: We have moved through Labor Day weekend (Labor Day fell on Monday, September 7),the traditional turning point when the summer market gives way to the fall selling season. And it is a season worth watching. Early September through mid-October is widely recognized as the second-best listing window of the year in this region, after the mid-April to early-June peak, in part because federal fiscal-year hiring begins October 1, bringing a new wave of buyer demand into the Northern Virginia corridor. The latest Freddie Mac mortgage rate reading,delivered Thursday, Septemberer 3,,averaged 6.71%,up five basis points from the prior week,andthe next major rate decision for the housing market comes at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on September 15-16, with its decision due Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET. Heading into the FOMC meeting, markets now price roughly a one-in-two chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, and 30-year Treasury yields had been approaching 5.2% in anticipation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address on Friday, August 28, a speech markets were watching closely for any signal on the path of interest rates. For Northern Virginia home buyers and sellers, what matters most is whether mortgage rates respond in the days ahead; I will keep monitoring the reaction and share my analysis as the picture becomes clear. As of Monday, August 31, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage still held at approximately 6.66%, per The Mortgage Reports, steady to close out August. Thursday's Freddie Mac survey,released Septemberer 3,,delivered the 30-year fixed at 6.71%,and markets now head into the Septemberer 15-16 FOMC meeting pricing a divided committee,with odds commonly cited around a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Because it is a scheduled meeting, the Fed will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot,giving us the clearest picture yet of where policy sits headed into fall. Prince William County posted a median sold price of approximately $593,500 -- an 8% year-over-year increase -- with 602 active listings and homes averaging 25 days on market. New listings in the county are up 12% and closed sales surged 40% year-over-year, signaling strong buyer demand even as inventory continues to grow. In Fairfax County, the median sold price for July reached approximately $775,000, essentially flat year-over-year, with active house inventory running 17% to 20% above August 2025 levels per Bellacasa Partners -- the largest year-over-year increase so far in 2026. Roughly 42% of Fairfax City homes sold above list price, according to local data. In Loudoun County, the median sold price held around $815,000 for July, reinforcing its position as the region's strongest appreciation market. Early August data from RaisetheBarDMV (Aug 19, 2026) shows the Loudoun median at approximately $813,000, up 7.4% year-over-year, with average days on market at 21 days. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved to 6.69% as of early August 2026 according to Freddie Mac's most recent survey (week ending August 6), and the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at its July 28-29 meeting in a divided 9 to 3 vote.

This week's update (September 15, 2026): The headline news arrived Monday: NVAR released its August 2026 market statistics on September 14, and the numbers confirm the inventory story continued. Region-wide, closed sales totaled 1,324 in August, down 8.0% year-over-year, while the median sold price rose about 2% year-over-year, per NVAR. The release was headlined "Northern Virginia Inventory Story Continues in August as Condos and Attached Homes Lead Growth," extending the trend that defined July: more choices for buyers, led by condos and attached homes, with prices holding firm even as the pace of sales slows toward a more normal rhythm. On the rate front, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 10 averaged 6.76% for the 30-year fixed, up from 6.71% the prior week and well above the 6.35% reading of a year earlier, with the 15-year fixed averaging 6.09%. The reading keeps rates squarely in the mid-to-upper 6% band the region has seen all year. It also sets up an eventful week: the Federal Reserve's rate decision lands Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, and because it is a scheduled meeting, the Committee will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Heading in, market expectations have moved meaningfully: CME FedWatch has shown roughly a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at this meeting, up from about one-in-three odds in the first week of September, and J.P. Morgan strategists have shifted to expect a hike. The fed funds rate has sat at 3.50% to 3.75% since December 2025, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market resilient with unemployment near 4.1%. Whichever way the decision lands, the regional story is unchanged: inventory at its highest level in years, and a Prince William County value proposition that gives buyers more leverage than this market has offered in half a decade. Prince William Association of Realtors data for August is expected imminently, and I will publish it the day it arrives.

This week's update (September 16, 2026): Today is decision day for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC's rate decision lands at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET and an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. As this edition was prepared before the announcement, I have kept my analysis to what is confirmed by the data. Meanwhile, the August county-level numbers now round out the region's picture. NVAR's August release put the region-wide median sold price at $765,000, up 2.0% year-over-year. In Loudoun County, August closed sales totaled 432, down 16.9% from a year earlier, dollar volume fell 15.7% to $379.9 million, and the median sold price rose 0.9% to $771,250. In Fairfax County, Bright MLS data reported through FFXnow shows 757 closed sales in August with a median sales price of $752,250, down 0.4% year-over-year, and total sales volume of $857.4 million, down 6.3%. Fairfax City saw 26 sales for the month with 51 active listings at month-end. These are the signals of a market settling into a slower, more balanced fall rhythm: prices holding, sales volume normalizing, and inventory giving buyers more to choose from. Prince William County remains the region's clearest value story, and I will post PWAR's August figures the day they are released.

This week's update (September 18, 2026): The Fed delivered. On Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first rate hike since 2023, citing inflation that remains stubbornly above the 2% target and worsened in part by a rebound in oil prices. Chair Kevin Warsh indicated the committee could raise rates once more in 2026. The reaction in mortgage rates was immediate: Freddie Mac's PMMS for the week ending September 17 averaged 6.95% for the 30-year fixed, up from 6.76% the prior week, with daily trackers running near 7.0% to 7.1%. For Northern Virginia buyers and sellers, the regional fundamentals are unchanged, prices holding firm on NVAR's August median of $765,000 while inventory sits at its highest level in years. But the direction of travel is now clearly up, which makes locking a rate and pricing from data more important than ever as the fall window, buoyed by the October 1 federal fiscal-year hiring wave, continues.

This week's update (September 22, 2026): The rate environment is settling into its post-decision groove. Freddie Mac's PMMS for the week ending September 17 remains the latest survey: the 30-year fixed averaged 6.95%, up from 6.76% the prior week and the fourth consecutive weekly increase, with the 15-year fixed averaging 6.26%, up from 6.09%. Daily mortgage trackers have pushed toward and above 7%, and analysts, including Freddie Mac's own commentary, have described the path to lower mortgage rates as "highly uncertain" while the Fed signals more tightening may come. The takeaway for Northern Virginia buyers is unchanged but sharper: if you have found the right home, the cost of waiting for rates to fall may exceed the savings, and locking in protects against further increases. On the county front, the Board of County Supervisors was scheduled to consider the data center zoning text amendment (DPA2026-00006) at its Tuesday, September 22 meeting: the Planning Commission recommended 5-2 on September 9 to end by-right data center development (requiring a special use permit and Board approval for new projects) and to shrink the Data Center Opportunity Zone Overlay District from roughly 9,700 acres to about 3,500 acres, removing sites such as the Jiffy Lube Live area and planned school land from by-right development. The outcome reshapes the long-term land-use picture for communities like Nokesville, Gainesville, and western Prince William County, and I cover the full story in my new data center zoning post. Meanwhile, PWAR's August 2026 figures for Prince William County had not yet been published as of this writing; the most recent verified county-level release is PWAR's June 2026 data (663 closed sales, up 18.2% year-over-year, with 935 active listings, up 21% and the highest June inventory in five years). I will post the August release the day it arrives.

This week's update (September 23, 2026): The biggest local story of the week is now official: on Tuesday, September 22, the Prince William County Board of County Supervisors voted 8-0 to approve zoning text amendment DPA2026-00006, ending by-right data center development countywide. Under the approved amendment, all new data center projects must come before the Board for approval through a Special Use Permit, and the Data Center Opportunity Zone Overlay District is reduced from roughly 9,700 acres to about 3,500 acres, removing sites such as the Jiffy Lube Live area and planned school land from by-right development. Data centers already built or under construction, along with site plans that passed the county's quality control threshold, remain in the overlay, and the Planning Commission had recommended a 120-day grace period for the downsized district. I cover the full outcome in my new data center vote breakdown. Also this week, NVAR expanded its August 2026 market statistics on September 21 under the headline "Northern Virginia Housing Market Remains Tighter Than National Market": closed sales of 1,324 were down 8.0% year-over-year (versus a 1.2% decline nationally), the median sold price of $765,000 was up 2.0% (versus a national median of $429,100, up 1.6%), August months-of-supply rose to 2.08 (up 14.7% year-over-year), and sales dollar volume totaled $1.195 billion, down 6.4%. On rates, Freddie Mac's next PMMS release is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, and the next FOMC meeting runs October 27-28; as of this writing the latest confirmed reading remains 6.95% for the week ending September 17. PWAR's August 2026 figures for Prince William County had still not been published as of this writing; the most recent verified county-level release remains PWAR's June 2026 data, which showed a median sold price of $600,000, essentially flat year-over-year, with 663 closed sales (up 18.2%) and 935 active listings (up 21%, a five-year June high). Fall community events are in full swing across the county: the Manassas Latino Festival returns Saturday, September 26 at the Harris Pavilion, the NVA Thai Street Food & Culture Festival follows Sunday, September 27 on the Manassas Museum Lawn, and the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee takes over Old Town on Saturday, October 3.

This week's update (September 25, 2026): The week's biggest number for anyone financing a home arrived Thursday: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 24 put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.03%, up from 6.95% the prior week and its fifth consecutive weekly increase, with the 15-year fixed averaging 6.42%. Per Freddie Mac's release, the 30-year averaged 6.30% a year ago, making this the first survey average above 7% since January 2025, roughly 20 months. Economists quoted by CBS News have called the 7% mark a "foreboding psychological barrier" for buyers, and some now forecast "7% as the new normal" in the months ahead, with the next FOMC meeting set for October 27-28. In Northern Virginia, the regional mix is the same as it has been all month: prices holding firm on NVAR's August median of $765,000 (up 2.0% year-over-year), closed sales of 1,324 (down 8.0%), and end-of-month active listings of 2,932 (up 18.5% year-over-year as the inventory story continues). For buyers, the message is sharpened: if you are pre-approved for the right home, locking now protects against another step higher, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home than Fairfax or Loudoun, with the most recent verified county median at $600,000 (PWAR, June 2026). PWAR's August 2026 county-level figures had still not been published as of this writing, and I will post them the day they land. On the community calendar, this weekend is a full one: the Manassas Latino Festival on Saturday, September 26 at the Harris Pavilion, the NVA Thai Street Food & Culture Festival on Sunday, September 27 on the Manassas Museum Lawn, and the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee on Saturday, October 3 in Old Town.

This week's update (September 29, 2026): The biggest market story of the week is not a housing number at all, it is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level in almost two decades: it crossed 5% on September 14 for the first time since October 2023, posted its largest single-day jump since April 2025 on September 23 (reaching about 5.1%, a 19-year high), touched about 5.2% on September 24 (5.18% per FRED), and spiked to an intraday high near 5.27% on Monday, September 28 before settling back toward 5.23%. Zillow Research (Sept 23), The Real Deal (Sept 24), and WRE News (Sept 28) have all highlighted what this means for housing: higher yields push mortgage rates higher, worsen affordability, and can erode the negotiating power fall buyers had been gaining. The most recent confirmed mortgage rate reading remains Freddie Mac's week-ending September 24 survey: the 30-year fixed at 7.03%, its first average above 7% since January 2025 and its fifth consecutive weekly increase, with the 15-year at 6.42%; the next Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 1, and the next FOMC meeting runs October 27-28. For Northern Virginia the regional story is unchanged: NVAR's August median of $765,000 (up 2.0% year-over-year), closed sales of 1,324 (down 8.0%), and end-of-month active listings of 2,932 (up 18.5%), with Prince William County still the region's clearest value play at a $600,000 median (PWAR, June 2026, the most recent verified county-level release). For buyers, the message is to lock in when you have found the right home; for sellers, price from today's data, not last spring's. On the community calendar, October opens with the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee on Saturday, October 3 in Old Town, the Battle of Bristoe Station bus tour the same day, the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station on Saturday, October 10 at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park, and Manassas Park's Falloween on Saturday, October 17.

This week's update (September 30, 2026): Mortgage rates are now running above the weekly survey in real time, and the bond market keeps setting the tone. On Tuesday, September 29, daily lender trackers put the 30-year fixed at roughly 7.24% per Zillow and about 7.37% per Mortgage Research Center, which flagged it as a one-year high up 0.31 percentage points week-over-week, with U.S. News reporting some purchase quotes passing 7.5% amid what it called bond market turbulence. The 10-year Treasury yield closed around 5.24% on September 28, its highest level of 2026, touched an intraday high near 5.29% on September 29 per CNBC, and eased to about 5.23% on September 30, holding near its highest levels since October 2023. The benchmark remains Freddie Mac's week-ending September 24 survey at 7.03%, and the next PMMS release lands Thursday, October 1 alongside the start of federal fiscal year 2027, when the annual federal hiring wave historically boosts demand across the NOVA corridor. Good news for relocating federal families: there will be no government shutdown at the October 1 deadline, the continuing resolution signed September 2 funds the government through December 11, 2026, with the next lapse risk December 12. On the demand side, Bellacasa Partners' September 2026 market update reports buyer activity concentrating on fresh listings, with 64% of buyer activity in the September 16-22 tracking week going to newly listed homes, which reinforces the case for disciplined first-day pricing and presentation. The next FOMC meeting runs October 27-28, and PWAR's August 2026 county-level figures remain unpublished; the most recent verified county release stays PWAR's June 2026 data ($600,000 median, 663 closed sales, 935 active listings). October's calendar: 43rd Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee on Saturday, October 3 in Old Town (10 AM to 5 PM), the Battle of Bristoe Station bus tour the same day, the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station on Saturday, October 10 at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park, and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on Halloween, October 31 on the Manassas Museum Lawn.

This week's update (October 2, 2026): The week's headline arrived with the new federal fiscal year. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 1 put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.28%, up from 7.03% the prior week and 6.34% a year earlier, with the 15-year fixed at 6.60%. The reading is the second consecutive survey average above 7%, confirming that the September 24 crossing was not a one-week blip, and it landed alongside the October 1 start of federal fiscal year 2027, when the annual federal hiring wave historically boosts demand across the NOVA corridor. The continuing resolution signed September 2 funds the government through December 11, 2026, so relocating federal families can plan moves with no lapse risk until mid-December. The regional data is otherwise unchanged and verified: NVAR's August 2026 statistics (released September 14 and expanded September 21) remain the latest regional figures, with a median sold price of $765,000 (up 2.0% year-over-year), closed sales of 1,324 (down 8.0%), end-of-month active listings of 2,932 (up 18.5%), and months of supply at 2.08; NVAR's September 2026 release is expected around mid-October, and I will post it the day it lands. In Prince William County, PWAR's June 2026 release remains the most recent verified county-level data: a $600,000 median sold price, essentially flat year-over-year, with 663 closed sales (up 18.2%) and year-to-date closed sales up 12.1%, a report the association headlined as one of strong momentum with inventory at a five-year high. With the fall selling window still open through mid-October, the message for buyers is to lock in when you have found the right home, and for sellers to price from today's data: fresh listings are still capturing the majority of buyer activity. October's community calendar is full: the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee runs this Saturday, October 3, 10 AM to 5 PM in Old Town, the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station is commemorated Saturday, October 10 at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park, Haunted Happenings brings trick-or-treating and a costume parade to Old Town Manassas on Saturday, October 24, and the Historic Manassas farmers markets continue Thursdays and Saturdays through the season.

This week's update (October 6, 2026): The week's biggest story for anyone financing a home is not a housing number, it is the labor market. The September jobs report, released Friday, October 2, showed employers added only about 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, a soft enough reading that traders sharply cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting: from roughly 56% to 70% in mid-to-late September down to about 17% to 22% by the first week of October, with a hold now priced at roughly 80% to 84% per CNBC and market trackers. The decision lands Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM ET, and because it is a non-SEP meeting there will be no updated projections or dot plot, which makes the jobs data the dominant input. The bond market, meanwhile, is still setting the rate tone: the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.26% to 5.31% on Monday, October 5, its highest level in more than two decades, after touching an intraday high near 5.29% in late September. The most recent confirmed mortgage rate reading remains Freddie Mac's week-ending October 1 survey: the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up from 7.03% and 6.34% a year earlier, with the 15-year at 6.60%; the next Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 8. The regional data is unchanged and verified: NVAR's August 2026 statistics remain the latest regional figures (median sold price $765,000, up 2.0%; closed sales 1,324, down 8.0%; active listings 2,932, up 18.5%), with NVAR's September release expected around mid-October, and PWAR's June 2026 release stays the most recent county-level data for Prince William County ($600,000 median, 663 closed sales, up 18.2%). County-level snapshots from the latest published sources round out the picture: Redfin's three-month data through August puts Fairfax County at a $749,000 median sale price, down 0.8% year-over-year, and Loudoun County at $767,000, up 0.6%; in Stafford County, tracked closings over the six months through October put the median closing price near $560,000; and Culpeper County's average home value was $459,733 as of August 31, up 3.1% year-over-year per Zillow. For buyers, the message is steadier than a week ago: the odds of another hike this month have fallen sharply, but with rates above 7% and Treasury yields near two-decade highs there is no basis in the data for waiting on a meaningful drop, so locking when you have found the right home still protects you. For sellers, the fall window through mid-October remains the strongest of the year, with the federal hiring wave extending demand and fresh listings still capturing the majority of buyer activity. On the community calendar, the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station is commemorated Saturday, October 10 at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park, the Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House lands the same day, the Factory of Fear haunted house runs at the ARTfactory October 15-24, Falloween fills Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, and Halloween week brings a Trunk-or-Treat at the Manassas Park Community Center on October 24, Last Fridays' Halloween Party on the Plaza on October 30, and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31.

This week's update (October 7, 2026): The freshest county-level numbers for the region are now in. Bright MLS weekly data reported through the Colgan Team put Prince William County's August median sold price at $599,900, up 5.2% year-over-year, with homes averaging 25 days on market and 882 active listings, up 31.6% year-over-year in the week ending August 30, with 13.8% of listings price-reduced. Fairfax County came in at a $768,000 median, up about 2% year-over-year, with 1,920 active listings, up 32.7%, and 10.6% price-reduced; Loudoun County active listings rose 31.0% year-over-year to 879, with 11.9% price-reduced. In Stafford County, the August median sale price was $545,000 with a 100% sale-to-list ratio and a median 21 days on market; Fauquier County's August median was $675,000, up 4.7% year-over-year; and Culpeper County's average home value stood at $459,733, up 3.1% year-over-year per Zillow. These are weekly and third-party snapshots, not official association releases: PWAR's August 2026 county report remains unpublished (June 2026 stays its latest release, at a $600,000 median), and NVAR's September 2026 regional release is expected around mid-October. On rates, the benchmark holds at 7.28% from Freddie Mac's week-ending October 1 survey, with the next reading due Thursday, October 8 and daily lender trackers running above the survey level; the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.26% to 5.31% on Monday, October 5, its highest level in more than two decades, and the October 27-28 FOMC meeting now prices roughly an 80% to 84% chance of a hold after the soft September jobs report. For buyers, the county-level picture sharpens the regional story: prices are holding, inventory keeps growing, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the rising share of price-reduced listings is the signal to watch, and pricing from today's data with a strong debut remains the winning play in the fall window. On the community calendar, the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station is commemorated Saturday, October 10, 11 AM to 3 PM at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park, the Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House lands the same day, the Factory of Fear haunted house runs at the ARTfactory October 15-17 and 22-24, Falloween fills Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, Haunted Happenings brings trick-or-treating to Old Town Manassas on Saturday, October 24, the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat is the same day at the Community Center, and Halloween week closes with Last Fridays' Halloween Party on the Plaza on October 30 and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31.

This week's update (October 9, 2026): The week's biggest number for anyone financing a home arrived Thursday: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 8 put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the prior week and 6.30% a year earlier, with the 15-year fixed at 6.73%. It is the third consecutive survey average above 7% since January 2025, confirming the September 24 crossing was no one-week blip, and daily lender trackers are running above the survey level: Forbes put the average near 7.49% on Wednesday, October 7, Mortgage News Daily tracked 7.59% the same day, and U.S. News and Zillow showed about 7.68% on Thursday, with NBC News reporting mortgage rates at their highest point since 2023. The driver is the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.35% intraday on Wednesday, October 7, its highest level since 2002, a 24-year high per CNBC, with the 30-year Treasury bond touching about 5.70% at the peak, before easing back toward 5.23% after a solid $39 billion auction of 10-year notes. The counterweight remains the labor market: after the soft September jobs report (about 29,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2%), markets still price roughly an 80% to 84% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The regional data is unchanged and verified: NVAR's August 2026 statistics remain the latest regional figures (median sold price $765,000, up 2.0%; closed sales 1,324, down 8.0%; active listings 2,932, up 18.5%), with NVAR's September release expected around mid-October, and PWAR's June 2026 release stays the most recent county-level data for Prince William County ($600,000 median, 663 closed sales, up 18.2%), with the county's August median at $599,900, up 5.2% per Bright MLS weekly data reported through the Colgan Team. For buyers, the message is sharper than ever: if you are pre-approved and have found the right home, locking now protects against another step higher, there is no basis in the data for waiting on a meaningful drop, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the fall window through mid-October remains one of the strongest of the year, won with disciplined pricing from today's data and a strong debut. On the community calendar, this weekend is the big one: the 163rd anniversary of the Battle of Bristoe Station is commemorated Saturday and Sunday, October 10 and 11, 11 AM to 3 PM at Bristoe Station Battlefield Heritage Park in Bristow, the Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House lands Saturday, October 10, the Factory of Fear: Outbreak! haunted experience runs at the ARTfactory October 15 through 24, Falloween fills Manassas Park's Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, Haunted Happenings brings trick-or-treating to Old Town Manassas on Saturday, October 24, the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat is the same day at the Community Center, and Halloween week closes with Last Fridays' Halloween Party on the Plaza on October 30 and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31.

This week's update (October 13, 2026): The week ahead is defined by two events that will set the rate tone for the rest of the fall. The September CPI report lands Wednesday, October 14 at 8:30 AM ET, the last inflation reading before the FOMC's October 27-28 meeting; consensus forecasts call for headline inflation near 3.6% to 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in August, with core around 2.4% to 2.5%, and the Cleveland Fed's nowcast points to a 3.60% headline and 2.39% core reading. The bond market continues to set the tone: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.24% on Friday, October 9, its highest level since April 2002, after setting a one-year high of 5.31% on October 5. On rates, the benchmark holds at 7.40% from Freddie Mac's week-ending October 8 survey (15-year at 6.73%), with daily lender trackers near 7.4% on Monday, October 12 (Mortgage Daily about 7.42%, Money.com roughly 7.37%, Fortune about 7.46%) and the next Primary Mortgage Market Survey due Thursday, October 15. Markets price roughly a 16% to 18% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a hold near 80% to 84%, and 16 of 19 Fed officials projected at least one more hike this year; the September existing-home sales report lands later this month. The regional data is unchanged and verified: NVAR's August 2026 statistics remain the latest regional figures (median sold price $765,000, up 2.0%; closed sales 1,324, down 8.0%; active listings 2,932, up 18.5%; months of supply 2.08; average days on market 26 days, unchanged year-over-year), with NVAR's September release expected around mid-October, and PWAR's June 2026 release stays the most recent county-level data for Prince William County ($600,000 median, 663 closed sales, up 18.2%), with the county's August median at $599,900, up 5.2%, per Bright MLS weekly data reported through the Colgan Team. Forecasters are not promising relief: Bankrate's October 8-14 expert panel had 67% predicting rates would rise, with Fannie Mae projecting the 30-year at 6.80% by the end of 2026 and Wells Fargo at 6.90%. For buyers, the message is unchanged: if you are pre-approved and have found the right home, locking now protects against another step higher, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the fall window through mid-October remains one of the strongest of the year, won with disciplined pricing from today's data and a strong debut. On the community calendar, the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through October 29, the Factory of Fear haunted experience opens at the ARTfactory October 15-17 and 22-24, Falloween fills Manassas Park's Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, Haunted Happenings brings trick-or-treating to Old Town Manassas on Saturday, October 24 alongside the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat and the Air & Scare Day at the Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly, the NVA Thai Street Food & Culture Festival follows Sunday, October 25 on the Manassas Museum grounds, and Halloween week closes with the Kena Shriners Trunk or Treat on October 30 and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31.

This week's update (October 14, 2026): Today is the day the market has been waiting on. The September CPI report was released this morning at 8:30 AM ET, the last inflation reading before the FOMC's October 27-28 meeting. Heading into the release, consensus forecasts called for headline inflation near 3.6% to 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in August, with core around 2.4% to 2.5%, and the Cleveland Fed's nowcast pointed to a 3.60% headline and 2.39% core reading. I will share my read-through of the official figures and what they mean for the Fed decision and mortgage rates as soon as they are confirmed in the release. Two other dates matter this week: the next Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 15, with the benchmark holding at 7.40% from the October 8 survey (15-year at 6.73%) and the 10-year Treasury at about 5.2% (5.24% close on October 9, its highest level since April 2002, after a one-year high of 5.31% on October 5). On the data calendar, NVAR's September 2026 market statistics are expected around mid-to-late October (its September 2025 report appeared October 27, 2025), and I will post my analysis the day they land; the September existing-home sales report also arrives later this month. In the meantime, the August data remains the latest verified regional picture, and it carries one detail worth underscoring for anyone house-hunting right now: the market is genuinely bifurcated by product type. NVAR's August release shows detached single-family inventory fell 8.5% month-over-month to 998 listings while attached (townhome) inventory jumped 39.7% to 1,934 listings, extending July's pattern (condos up 41.1%, attached up 33%, detached down 2.5%). Buyers seeking a detached home still face constrained supply and firm pricing, while condo and townhome shoppers have more choice than this region has offered in half a decade. That split is why "is it a buyer's market or a seller's market?" no longer has a single answer here, and it is the subject of my new Two-Speed NOVA Housing Market post. For buyers, the message is unchanged: if you are pre-approved and have found the right home, locking now protects against another step higher, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the fall window through mid-October is in its final stretch, and disciplined pricing from today's data remains the winning play. On the community calendar, the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through October 29 (with the Historic Manassas Saturday market running through November 21), the Factory of Fear haunted experience continues at the ARTfactory through October 24, Falloween fills Manassas Park's Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, Haunted Happenings and the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat land Saturday, October 24, the Haunted Mini Golf at Locust Shade Park runs October 29-31, and Halloween weekend brings trick-or-treating on Center Street in Historic Downtown Manassas and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31.

This week's update (October 16, 2026): The inflation report the market had been waiting on has landed, and it came in hot. The September CPI report, released Wednesday, October 14, showed headline inflation rising 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, above the roughly 3.6% consensus, with core inflation up 0.3% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year, also hotter than expected, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The first full week after it brought a rare pause in the rate climb: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 15 put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week and the first pause after seven consecutive weekly increases, with the 15-year fixed easing to 6.71% and the 30-year at 6.27% a year earlier. The bond market gave rates room to hold: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24% on October 9, its highest level since April 2002, then eased to about 5.21% on October 13, 5.19% on October 14, and roughly 5.08% by October 15, down from the cycle peak of 5.31% on October 5. On the county front, there is important news: PWAR released its September 2026 market statistics, and across Prince William County, Manassas City, and Manassas Park, buyers had more homes to choose from as inventory increased, while closed sales and the median sold price declined. The county's median sold price came in at $589,450, down 1.8% from the prior period, the first official association reading to reflect the late-summer run-up in rates and now the freshest county-level figure available, replacing PWAR's June release as the most recent verified local data. Regionally, NVAR's August 2026 statistics remain the latest figures (median sold price $765,000, up 2.0%; closed sales 1,324, down 8.0%; active listings 2,932, up 18.5%), with NVAR's September release expected around mid-to-late October. The National Association of Realtors' September existing-home sales report, released October 13, showed sales up 1.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, down 2.2% year-over-year, with a 4.8-month supply and a median price of $417,500, up 1.3%. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting still prices a hold near 80% to 84%, though the hot CPI print nudges the odds of another hike slightly higher. For buyers, one steady week of rates is not a trend, but it is the first sign the sharpest leg of the move may be behind us; locking a rate you can live with still protects you. For sellers, PWAR's September report is the signal to price from today's data, and the fall window through mid-October is in its final stretch. On the community calendar, Falloween fills Manassas Park's Park Central Plaza on Saturday, October 17, 10 AM to 1 PM; Sunday, October 18 brings the Not So Scary Halloween Festival at Manassas Mall and the Manassas Vintage Halloween Market on Prince William Street; the Great Pumpkin Party at the Sharron Baucom Dale City Recreation Center lands Friday, October 23; Saturday, October 24 brings Haunted Happenings to Old Town Manassas, the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat at the Community Center, and Family Pumpkin Carving at Veterans Memorial Park; the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through October 29; the Haunted Mini Golf at Locust Shade Park runs October 29-31; and Halloween closes with Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on October 31. I cover the full read-through in my new September CPI post.

This week's update (October 20, 2026): The freshest official regional numbers have landed. NVAR released its September 2026 market statistics on Friday, October 16, and they show prices rising even as the inventory story continues. Region-wide, the median sold price rose 4.2% year-over-year to $744,950, while closed sales totaled 1,250, down 7.5% from September 2025. The headline remains inventory: active listings surged 30.7% year-over-year to 3,477, the highest level in years, with months of supply up 29.5% to 2.5 and average days on market at 28 days, unchanged year-over-year. New pending sales fell 16.2% to 1,204, and total sales volume came to about $1.11 billion, down 8.7%. Alexandria was the one outlier within the region, with its city median sale price down 11.4% to $660,000. By county, Fairfax County's September median was $749,750, up 5.6% year-over-year, with 897 closed sales, down 5.9%, per NVAR, while Loudoun County closed sales fell roughly 17.8% year-over-year in September per the Dulles Area Association of Realtors, with its August median at $771,250. In Prince William County, PWAR's September release remains the latest county-level data: a median sold price of $589,450, down 1.8% from the prior period, with inventory up and closed sales down. On rates, the benchmark holds at 7.40% from Freddie Mac's week-ending October 15 survey (15-year at 6.71%), with daily lender trackers near that level, and markets now price roughly an 80% to 86% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the odds of a hike around 14% to 17%. The next Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 22. For buyers, the September numbers sharpen the message: prices are firm, inventory is at multi-year highs, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the rising share of price-reduced listings is the signal to watch, and pricing from today's data with a strong debut remains the winning play. I cover the full read-through of NVAR's September release in my new NVAR September market post. On the community calendar, the Great Pumpkin Party at the Sharron Baucom Dale City Recreation Center lands Friday, October 23, alongside BOOnanza! at Baldwin Elementary; Saturday, October 24 brings Haunted Happenings trick-or-treating in Old Town Manassas, the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat at the Community Center, and Family Pumpkin Carving at Veterans Memorial Park; the Manassas Mall Trunk-or-Treat runs Wednesday, October 28; the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through October 29; the Haunted Mini Golf at Locust Shade Park runs October 29-31; and Halloween closes with Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on the Manassas Museum Lawn on Saturday, October 31, 10 AM to 3 PM, with the Kids Halloween Costume Parade at 1 PM.

This week's update (October 21, 2026): The freshest national housing readings, all released this week and verified today, reinforce the affordability squeeze that higher rates are creating. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (October 19) fell three points to 29, its lowest since June 2012, with 43% of builders reporting price cuts in October, the highest share since at least 2020. The National Association of Realtors' September pending home sales index (October 20) fell 7.3% month-over-month and 11.3% year-over-year, down in all four regions. And Census Bureau September housing starts (October 20) dropped 4.56% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 859,000, the lowest since September 2025, with building permits also down sharply. On the bond market, the 10-year Treasury eased to about 5.08% on October 16 before bouncing to roughly 5.15% on October 20, and HousingWire reported 30-year conforming mortgage rates at about 7.52% on October 20, down 11 basis points week-over-week as yields slipped; Freddie Mac's next Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 22. For statewide context, Virginia REALTORS' latest snapshot puts the Commonwealth's 2026 median sold price at about $449,000, up 4.4% year-over-year, with estimated monthly payments up about 16.8% to roughly $2,487 as the rate environment challenges buyers. The regional and local picture is unchanged and verified: NVAR's September median of $744,950, up 4.2%, closed sales of 1,250, down 7.5%, active listings of 3,477, up 30.7% (months of supply 2.5, up 29.5%; average days on market 28, unchanged), and PWAR's September Prince William County median of $589,450, down 1.8% with inventory up. Markets still price roughly an 80% to 86% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. For buyers, these national numbers are context, not a reason to wait: Northern Virginia's price trend is firm, its inventory is at multi-year highs, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, disciplined pricing from today's data remains the winning play, with fresh listings still capturing the majority of buyer activity. On the community calendar, Halloween closes this weekend with the Haunted Mini Golf at Locust Shade Park (October 29-31) and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on the Manassas Museum Lawn on Saturday, October 31, 10 AM to 3 PM; then the calendar turns to a notable week, with Virginia's general election on Tuesday, November 3 (in-person early voting runs through Saturday, October 31, and the voter registration deadline is Friday, October 23) and the 18th annual Northern Virginia Veterans Day Parade stepping off in Old Town Manassas on Saturday, November 7 at 11 AM, honoring U.S. Army Col. Steele McGonegal (Ret.). I cover the parade and a military family's late-2026 market check in my new Veterans Day post.

This week's update (October 23, 2026): The big news of the week for anyone financing a home is the first real sign of rate relief. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 22 put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.32%, down 8 basis points from 7.40% the prior week and the first weekly decline since late August 2026, with the 15-year fixed easing to 6.68% and the 30-year at 6.19% a year earlier. The move followed a bond-market rally that took the 10-year Treasury yield below 5% for the first time in about a month, closing near 4.96% on Thursday, October 22 after hovering around 5.13% a day earlier. It is one week, not a trend, but it is the first decline after seven consecutive weekly increases, and it sharpens the timing question for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is now days away, with the decision due Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; prediction markets price roughly an 85% to 88% chance of a hold, with the next meeting set for December 8-9. The regional and local data is unchanged and verified: NVAR's September median of $744,950, up 4.2%, closed sales of 1,250, down 7.5%, active listings of 3,477, up 30.7%, and PWAR's September Prince William County median of $589,450, down 1.8% with inventory up. For buyers, the message is the same as it has been all autumn but with a sharper edge: if you are pre-approved and have found the right home, a rate in the low 7s with a likely Fed hold ahead is a lockable number, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, price from today's data, not last spring's, and lean into a strong debut. I cover the full read-through in my new mortgage rates post. On the community calendar, Halloween weekend is nearly here: the Manassas City Cemetery Tours run Friday, October 23 (6:30 and 7:30 PM), the free Ghost Hunters outdoor screening at Brentsville Courthouse Historic Centre is Friday, October 23 at 7 PM, Haunted Happenings brings trick-or-treating to Old Town Manassas on Saturday, October 24, the Manassas Mall Trunk-or-Treat runs Wednesday, October 28, the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through November 21, and Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween closes Halloween on the Manassas Museum Lawn on Saturday, October 31. Looking ahead, the calendar turns to Virginia's general election on Tuesday, November 3, Flags for Heroes on the Museum Lawn on Friday, November 6, and the 18th annual Northern Virginia Veterans Day Parade in Old Town Manassas on Saturday, November 7 at 11 AM.

This week's update (October 27, 2026): The next milestone for anyone financing a home lands tomorrow. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision on Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. It is a statement-only meeting, so there will be no updated economic projections or dot plot. Heading in, markets price roughly an 85% to 90% chance the Fed holds its benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, with the next meeting set for December 8-9. Mortgage rates hold at 7.32% for the 30-year fixed from Freddie Mac's week-ending October 22 survey, the first weekly decline since late August, with the 15-year at 6.68% and the 30-year at 6.19% a year earlier, and the next Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 29. The bond market that drove the dip is still the story: the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.96% on October 22, below 5% for the first time in about a month. On the county front, the freshest published figures are the Colgan Team's October 2026 market report (Bright MLS data published October 23, covering September sales): Prince William County's September median came in at $579,990, down 3.7% year-over-year, with 389 closed sales and new contracts down 17.1%; Loudoun County's median was $758,500, up 0.8%, with closed sales down about 17.8%; Fauquier County's median was $631,495, up 4.8%; and Fairfax County's median held at $749,750, up 5.6%. Early-October active listings were up more than 33% year-over-year in both Prince William and Loudoun counties (about 980 and 967 listings respectively). Full October monthly statistics from the associations are expected around mid-November; PWAR's official September figure ($589,450, down 1.8%) covers Prince William County, Manassas City, and Manassas Park together, while the Bright MLS figure above is county-level, which explains the difference. In Stafford County, Redfin's September median came in at $513,850, down 0.9% year-over-year, and in Culpeper County the latest published figure remains Zillow's average home value of $459,733 as of August 31, up 3.1%. On the calendar, Virginia's general election is Tuesday, November 3, with in-person early voting running through Saturday, October 31: on the ballot are the U.S. Senate race (incumbent Mark Warner versus Bert Mizusawa), the House races that cover Northern Virginia (the 7th, 10th, 8th, and an open 11th District seat), a special general election for House of Delegates District 20 spanning Manassas, Manassas Park, and part of Prince William County, Manassas City Council and School Board seats, and local questions in Prince William County and Manassas on an additional local sales tax to fund school construction and renovation. November's community calendar is strong too: the Manassas Park Veterans Flag Ceremony is Friday, November 6, 1 to 2 PM at City Hall (100 Park Central Plaza), the 18th annual Northern Virginia Veterans Day Parade steps off Saturday, November 7 at 11 AM in Old Town Manassas, the Park Central and Historic Manassas farmers markets continue through November 21, and Capture the Claus (Saturday, November 14, 6 to 8 PM at the Manassas Park Community Center) and the Manassas Park 5K Run and Walk (Saturday, November 14, 8 to 11 AM at Blooms Park) round out the weekend. For buyers, the message remains: rates have paused, not reversed, so locking a rate you can live with still protects you, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the fall window is nearly closed, so price from today's data and use the coming weeks to plan a strong early-2027 debut.

This week's update (October 28, 2026): Today is decision day for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC's rate decision lands at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. It is a statement-only meeting, so there will be no updated economic projections or dot plot, and because this edition was prepared before the announcement I have kept my analysis to what the data confirms heading in. Markets price roughly an 85% to 90% chance the Fed holds its benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, with the next meeting set for December 8-9. The mortgage rate picture holds at 7.32% for the 30-year fixed from Freddie Mac's week-ending October 22 survey, the first weekly decline since late August, with the 15-year at 6.68%, and the next Primary Mortgage Market Survey lands Thursday, October 29. The bond market that drove the dip has edged back over the round number: the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.96% on October 22 before rising to about 5.00% on October 23 and October 26 per FRED, a reminder that the reprieve is tentative. I also verified fresh county-level September figures this week that round out the regional picture: the Colgan Team's October 2026 report (Bright MLS data published October 23) put Culpeper County's September median sold price at $475,500, down 4.1% year-over-year with 44 closings and new contracts down 31.6%; Stafford County's September median came in at $515,000, down 0.8% per Redfin's local data with 135 closings and new contracts up 6.3%, the one county in this roundup showing contract growth; and Fauquier County's September median was $631,495, up 4.8% with new contracts down 20.7%. Those join the figures already published this month: Prince William County's September median of $579,990, down 3.7% year-over-year (Bright MLS, 389 closed sales, new pendings down 17.1%), PWAR's combined three-jurisdiction September median of $589,450, down 1.8%, NVAR's regional median of $744,950, up 4.2% with active listings up 30.7%, and Fairfax ($749,750, up 5.6%) and Loudoun ($758,500, up 0.8%) holding firm. Full October monthly statistics from the associations are expected around mid-November, and I will post them the day they land. On the community calendar: Virginia's general election is Tuesday, November 3 (polls are open 6 AM to 7 PM, with in-person early voting running through Saturday, October 31), the Manassas Park Veterans Flag Ceremony is Friday, November 6, 1 to 2 PM at City Hall (100 Park Central Plaza), the 18th annual Northern Virginia Veterans Day Parade steps off Saturday, November 7 at 11 AM in Old Town Manassas honoring U.S. Army Col. Steele McGonegal (Ret.), and the "Unseen Threads" exhibition by artist Kwaku Ofori-Yirenkyi opens at the ARTfactory Saturday, November 7 with a 6 to 8 PM reception, on view through December 6. The Historic Manassas Saturday market (8 AM) and the Park Central Farmers Market (9 AM to 1 PM) continue on November 7 and 14, Capture the Claus (6 to 8 PM) and the Manassas Park 5K Run and Walk (8 to 11 AM at Blooms Park) both land Saturday, November 14, and as a scheduling note the City of Manassas canceled the remaining 2026 First Friday events, including November's, after the September 4 downtown incident. For buyers, the message is unchanged: rates have paused, not reversed, so locking a rate you can live with still protects you, and Prince William County still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun. For sellers, the fall window is nearly closed, so price from today's data and use the coming weeks to plan a strong early-2027 debut. I walk through the winter-listing playbook in my new selling in November or December post.

This week's update (October 30, 2026): The Fed delivered its decision, and it matched the market's forecast. On Wednesday, October 28, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, pausing after September's quarter-point hike. The two dissents came from Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored another quarter-point increase; the statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that accumulating more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate stance for a timely return of inflation to its 2% goal. At the press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a process change rather than a rate move: starting in 2027, the Fed will reduce the number of meetings that set rates, with one of its eight annual meetings dedicated exclusively to broad monetary-policy strategy. The next rate-setting meeting is December 8-9. On rates, the decision landed alongside more relief: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 29 put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.24%, down 8 basis points from 7.32% the prior week and its second consecutive weekly decline, with the 30-year averaging 6.17% a year earlier. That means the survey has now eased two weeks in a row after peaking at 7.40% in early October, though the 10-year Treasury yield, which drives mortgage pricing, has been bouncing around the 5% line for weeks and one or two readings do not make a trend. The regional housing data is unchanged and verified: NVAR's September 2026 figures remain the latest official regional statistics (median sold price $744,950, up 4.2%; closed sales 1,250, down 7.5%; active listings 3,477, up 30.7%; months of supply 2.5; average days on market 28), with Prince William County at a $589,450 combined median per PWAR (down 1.8%) and $579,990 at the county level per Bright MLS data reported through the Colgan Team, Fairfax County at $749,750, up 5.6%, Loudoun at $758,500, up 0.8%, Fauquier at $631,495, up 4.8%, and Culpeper at $475,500, down 4.1%. Full October monthly statistics from NVAR and PWAR are expected around mid-November, and I will post them the day they land. I break down the full decision and what it means for buyers and sellers in my new Fed Holds Rates Steady post. On the regional economy, the job-market picture remains mixed as federal workforce reductions ripple through the corridor: Arlington's September unemployment rate was 2.9%, down from 3% a year earlier, but the number of jobless residents is still up nearly 25% since the 2025 federal workforce cuts (ARLnow, October 29), while the Stephen Fuller Institute has forecast NOVA employment to begin growing again, earlier than previously projected. On the community calendar: Virginia's general election is Tuesday, November 3 (polls 6 AM to 7 PM, early voting through Saturday, October 31), the Manassas Park Veterans Flag Ceremony is Friday, November 6, 1 to 2 PM at City Hall, the 18th annual Northern Virginia Veterans Day Parade steps off Saturday, November 7 at 11 AM in Old Town Manassas honoring U.S. Army Col. Steele McGonegal (Ret.), the "Unseen Threads" exhibition opens at the ARTfactory Saturday, November 7 (6 to 8 PM reception, on view through December 6), the Dale City Farmers Market runs 8 AM to 1 PM on November 1 and 22, the Historic Manassas Saturday market (8 AM) and the Park Central Farmers Market (9 AM to 1 PM) continue on November 7 and 14, Capture the Claus (6 to 8 PM) and the Manassas Park 5K Run and Walk (8 to 11 AM at Blooms Park) both land Saturday, November 14, Thanksgiving weekend brings Small Business Saturday on November 28 and Occoquan's Shop Small Weekend November 27-29 with the town's annual tree lighting, and the December lights season follows with Santa Lights Manassas on December 4 and the Manassas Park Light Parade on December 5; the City of Manassas has canceled the remaining 2026 First Friday events. For buyers, the message is the friendliest it has been since summer: a Fed on hold, two straight weekly rate declines, and the highest inventory in years, so locking a rate you can live with while protecting yourself against December still makes sense. For sellers, the fall window is nearly closed, so price from today's data and use the coming weeks to plan a strong early-2027 debut; winter still works in Prince William County, as I detail in my November and December selling guide.

For families with school-age children, the 2026-2027 school year is now fully underway across the region. Manassas City Public Schools started on Wednesday, August 12. Loudoun County Public Schools started on August 17. Prince William County Public Schools started Monday, August 24, and the fall routine is in full swing. While the window to close before the first day of school has passed for traditional financed purchases, families moving this fall are still well served: the school systems in this region register new students year-round and are accustomed to in-year enrollment, especially given the high volume of military and professional relocations.

The inventory surge is being driven overwhelmingly by condos and attached homes. Condo inventory soared 41.1% year-over-year to 1,274 units, while attached (townhome) inventory rose 33% to 617 units. Detached single-family home inventory actually declined 2.5% year-over-year, underscoring the bifurcated nature of the market: buyers seeking a single-family home still face constrained supply, while condo and townhome shoppers have more options than they have seen in half a decade. Average days on market across the NVAR region reached 21 days in July, up from 20 days a year ago - a modest increase reflecting the same normalization trend. For context, this remains an extremely fast market by historical standards; a 21-day average would have been considered a strong seller's market in any year before 2020.

The NVAR Mid-Year 2026 Regional Housing Market Forecast, released June 24, projects continued price appreciation of 1.5% in Fairfax County, 3.3% in Prince William County, 3.9% in Arlington, and 4.2% in Loudoun for detached single-family homes. These projections reflect a market that is normalizing -- not crashing -- with demand supported by Northern Virginia's highly educated workforce, strong quality of life, and sustained desire for homeownership. The forecast notes that federal workforce reductions and broader economic uncertainty have tested the region, but the fundamentals remain solid.

In Prince William County, through the summer the median sold price had risen to approximately $593,500, an 8% year-over-year increase as of the July data (the freshest August figures put the median at $599,900, up 5.2% year-over-year per Bright MLS weekly data reported through the Colgan Team). The county remains one of the strongest value propositions in the entire Washington metro area, attracting buyers priced out of Fairfax and Loudoun counties. Average days on market in Prince William County sits at roughly 25 days, giving buyers more time to evaluate options than they have had in years. Inventory in the county is up over 30% year-over-year, a significant improvement that is shifting negotiating leverage back toward buyers. The Manassas market specifically posted a median sale price of approximately $492,000 in Q2 2026, up 5.7% year-over-year, and commercial real estate vacancy in the city dropped to 3.9%.

Fairfax County posted a strong first half of 2026, with 6,289 closed sales and an average sales price of $928,075, up 5% year-over-year. The median sales price reached $780,000, up 2% from a year ago. For July, the median price moderated to approximately $775,000, flat year-over-year - still a sign that demand remains solid even as inventory grows and prices stabilize.

Mortgage rates have been a defining factor throughout 2026, and the latest data as of August 14 shows a slight easing from the prior week. Fortune reported the national 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.614% on August 14 (down 9 basis points from a week earlier), while Forbes pegged the Virginia average at 6.662%. In a notable local data point, McLean topped the entire BrightMLS mid-Atlantic service area for luxury home sales in Q2 2026, a testament to the strength of Northern Virginia's premium market despite the broader shift toward more attached homes (Northern Virginia Magazine, Aug 4). Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending August 6, 2026) had the 30-year at 6.69%, up from 6.66% the prior week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.01% per Freddie Mac. For Virginia-specific borrowers, Bankrate reported the Virginia 30-year fixed rate at 5.625% (APR 5.790%) as of August 14, while the Bankrate national average 30-year fixed stood at 5.623% (APR 5.790%). For military buyers using their VA loan benefit, Veterans United reported the 30-year fixed VA purchase rate at 5.875% as of August 14, 2026 - roughly a 0.8% advantage over conventional loans. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted in early August that the housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options. Despite the week-to-week fluctuations, the overall stability through the first half of 2026 - rates neither spiking above 7% nor dropping below 6% - has given buyers and sellers a more predictable baseline for planning their next move. Markets now price a 44% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, per Polymarket.

FOMC Update (July 29, 2026): The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of its July 28-29 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. The decision was not unanimous -- the vote was 9 to 3, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting: Beth M. Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie K. Logan (Dallas), each preferring to raise the target range by 25 basis points. In its statement, the FOMC said that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. On inflation, the Committee stated it remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. At his press conference, Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized: There is no soft inflation target - there is only a target, and it is 2 percent. For homebuyers, the divided vote introduces a new element of uncertainty: the hawks are gaining influence, and a rate increase at a future meeting cannot be ruled out. However, the steady Fed posture still reinforces the current rate environment -- mortgage rates are unlikely to drop sharply in the near term, but the stability we have seen through the first half of 2026 looks set to continue.

Key dates ahead: The FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting were released on Wednesday, August 19. The minutes reveal important details about the internal debate among committee members, particularly the perspectives of the three dissenting members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) who preferred a 25-basis-point hike. Early analysis suggests the internal divide on the FOMC has widened, with the hawks gaining influence. Markets will parse the minutes for any signals about whether the committee is moving closer to a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting.

Market Update: Bellacasa Partners Mid-August 2026 Report. The latest report from Bellacasa Partners (mid-August 2026) confirms that Northern Virginia's active inventory continues to build substantially across the region. While buyer activity remains solid -- new contracts in Fairfax County have closely tracked 2025 levels since June -- the growing inventory is giving buyers more choice and leverage than in recent years. Days on Market are increasing, and buyers are taking longer to make decisions. This normalization trend is healthy for the market in the long term, even as it requires sellers to be more strategic about pricing and presentation. In Loudoun County, median prices continue to hold firm at approximately $813,000 (up 7.4% year-over-year per early August data from RaisetheBarDMV). The county received $200 million from the NVTA on August 3, 2026 for a new collector road, a significant infrastructure investment. On the policy front, the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors voted 6-1 to direct staff to prepare a moratorium item on new data center applications, reflecting growing community concerns about the industry's footprint in the region's 'Data Center Alley.' On the central banking calendar, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs from Thursday, August 27 through Saturday, August 29 at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming. This is the most influential central banking conference in the world, and this year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address on Friday morning, August 28. Warsh -- who took office on May 22 replacing Jerome Powell -- has characterized his tenure as a "regime change" for the Fed and has signaled a "big picture" approach to his remarks that goes beyond the latest economic data. Markets were watching for any signals on the future path of interest rates, though analysts cautioned leading up to the event that Warsh might not provide a clear rate signal. For Northern Virginia home buyers and sellers, the Jackson Hole message matters: any hawkish surprise from Warsh's speech could nudge mortgage rates higher, while a measured, data-dependent tone could reinforce the current rate stability.

On the mortgage rate front, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending September 3,2026) reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.71%, up five basis points from 6.66% the prior week and up from 6.50% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.04%. NerdWallet (August 20) reported a 30-year fixed APR of approximately 6.51%. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted that housing affordability has improved from a year ago, and recent increases in purchase and refinance applications suggest borrowers are responding to even modest rate changes. Yahoo Finance reported the national average at approximately 6.51% as of August 19. For Virginia-specific borrowers, NerdWallet reports a 30-year fixed rate of approximately 6.55% APR (as of August 7). Military buyers continue to benefit from the VA loan advantage, with Veterans United reporting a 30-year fixed VA purchase rate of 5.875% as of August 19, roughly 0.80% below conventional rates. Bankrate's Virginia survey shows a 30-year fixed rate of approximately 5.625% (APR 5.790%), though these lower advertised rates typically reflect the most creditworthy borrowers with substantial down payments. The rate environment remains stable in the mid-6% range -- neither spiking above 7% nor dropping below 6% -- which gives buyers a predictable baseline for planning their home purchase.

Across the broader region, Northern Virginia is experiencing an extraordinary $12 billion in new development in 2026, spanning technology, healthcare, and infrastructure projects. Major developments include Tysons Corner's The Boro Phase 2, the Rivana at Innovation Station mixed-use project near Dulles, and Dulles Airport's Concourse E expansion (Colgan Team, TeamDDA). These investments reflect strong confidence in the region's long-term growth trajectory and will create jobs, improve transit access, and support property values across the corridor.

On the policy side, a significant change took effect on August 3, 2026: the FHA's Limited Review shortcut for condo financing was retired. Condo projects with more than 10 units must now go through Full Review, adding complexity to condo purchases and extending the timeline of condo transactions. This change makes it even more important for buyers to work with a knowledgeable lender early in the process to verify that their target condo community is FHA-approved. For townhome and single-family buyers, this change does not apply.

On the development front, Prince William County continues to see significant new construction activity. At the former Regal Cinemas site in Manassas, the Parkridge West development is constructing 162 new townhomes and condos, with first deliveries in spring 2026 and full completion expected by 2027. In Bristow, the Thomas Farm development -- approximately 350 homes -- has been advanced by the planning commission. Looking west, the Board of County Supervisors has advanced plans for nearly 4,000 new homes in western Prince William County, though this move went against staff recommendations. More than 1,000 additional homes are planned across multiple communities including Grayson Overlook in Gainesville (210 single-family homes), King's Grove in Woodbridge (239 stacked homes), and projects in Manassas and Nokesville. The county also broke ground on an $81 million interchange project at Prince William Parkway and Minnieville Road to improve capacity and mobility along this heavily traveled corridor. On the conservation front, the county extended the application period for its Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) program through September 30, 2026, giving landowners additional time to apply. The program aims to preserve farmland and open space, balancing PWC's growth with conservation.

Loudoun County Public Schools started the 2026-2027 school year on Monday, August 17 in mid-August. Prince William County Public Schools started Monday, August 24, and the school year is now fully underway. For families still searching for a home in time for the school year, there is still a window: closing by mid-to-late September and enrolling shortly after the start date is a well-established pattern in this region, especially given the high volume of military and professional relocations. I cover this in detail in my Back-to-School Home Buying Timeline.

On the local policy front, Prince William County secured $45 million in Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) funding on July 28, 2026, for transportation improvements. This award builds on the earlier $295 million NVTA allocation announced earlier in July for four major regional projects, including the Van Buren Road North Extension (Route 234 to Cardinal Drive, $179 million) and the Route 15 Railroad Overpass and Improvements ($65 million). These investments directly benefit homeowners by reducing commute times, improving access to major corridors, and supporting long-term property values. For buyers considering Prince William County, this infrastructure commitment is a strong signal that the county is investing in the quality of life that makes this area such a compelling choice.

In another positive development for homeowners, the Prince William County Board of County Supervisors adopted the FY2027 budget in April 2026 with a reduced real estate tax rate of $0.865 per $100 of assessed value, down from $0.906 the previous year. The rate reduction lowers the average residential tax bill by approximately $56 annually. Combined with the county's median home price of approximately $593,500 -- among the most accessible entry points in the core NVAR counties -- this tax relief strengthens Prince William County's position as the top value play in the Washington metro area.

On the community calendar, August has been a busy month across Prince William County. The 77th Annual Prince William County Fair wrapped up on August 8 with carnival rides, rodeo, demolition derby, and family entertainment. National Night Out on August 4 brought neighborhoods together with first responders. The 7th Annual Salvadoran Festival was held on August 16 at the Harris Pavilion in Manassas. The Los Kjarkas concert and Rippon Lodge Bug and Bird Day drew families to Woodbridge, and the Battle of Kettle Run Anniversary Tours marked a weekend of local history. Yesterday, National Park Free Entrance Day (August 25) offered free admission to all national parks including Great Falls Park, celebrating the 110th anniversary of the National Park Service. Looking ahead, the Latin Heritage Parranda at Manassas Park on August 29 features live Latin music, food vendors, and family-friendly entertainment. La Original Banda El Limon performs on August 30 at the Prince William County Fairgrounds. First Friday returns on September 4 in downtown Manassas with live music and vendors. Holy Family Fun Festival runs September 4-5 in Dale City with rides, games, and food. The Gathered on Center ribbon cutting in Historic Downtown Manassas showcases the area's newest gathering space. Arts Alive! at the George Mason University Science and Technology Campus on September 12 brings a free community arts festival featuring live performances and hands-on activities,food trucks,a wine and beer garden,and a headline set fromthe Capitol Fools comedy troupe,withthe festival running from ​10 AM to 5 PM. World War II Weekend at Rippon Lodge on September 12 offers living history demonstrations, and the 6th Annual Community Fair at Sean Connaughton Plaza in Woodbridge includes police department activities and resources. The Manassas International Food Festival returns on September 19 with Greek, Ukrainian, Slavic, and American cuisine, while An Evening with Bernadette Peters performs that same evening at the Hylton Performing Arts Center. The Edgar Rohr Memorial Car Show on September 19 brings automotive enthusiasts to the community. The Manassas Latino Festival follows on September 26 at the Harris Pavilion. The NVA Thai Street Food & Culture Festival is set for September 27 at the Manassas Museum Lawn. The Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee returns on October 3. The Labor Day weekend itself is packed across the county: on Friday, September 4, First Friday brings live music and the DORA to Historic Downtown Manassass; on Saturday, September 5, the Ornery Bristow Crab Feast takes over the Ornery Beer Company taproom in Bristow,anda Ghost Doctors ghost-hunting tour explores Manassass; on Sunday, September 6,families can enjoy the Baby Goat and Bunny Bottle Feed at Little Goat Farm at the Lake,andhe Manassass Symphony Orchestra performs duringthe holiday weekend. These events reflect the strong community fabric that makes Prince William County such a desirable place to call home.

Looking further into the season, the mid-to-late September and October calendar is filling in nicely. 2 Silos Brewing Company's Oktoberfest runs September 18-20 in Manassas with German beer, food, and live entertainment, and Oktoberfest Weekend at Eavesdrop Brewery follows September 19-20 in Manassas with beer, live music, local vendors, and food. Cox Farms Fall Festival in Centreville opens September 19 and runs through November 8, a rite of autumn for families across Northern Virginia. The Hylton Performing Arts Center in Prince William County launches its 2026-2027 season this month with dance, music, and theater, and the Manassas Latino Festival returns to the Harris Pavilion on September 26 to close Hispanic Heritage Month. In Manassas Park, Last Fridays at Park Central Plaza returns September 25 with food, live music, and vendors, and the Park Central Farmers Market runs Saturdays from 9 AM to 1 PM through October. October brings the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee on October 3, the Vienna Oktoberfest the same day, billed as one of Northern Virginia's largest free fall festivals in its 17th year, the Prince William County Fire-Rescue 3rd Annual Expo & Fall Festival on October 3, noon to 5 PM at Pfitzner Stadium in Woodbridge with fire truck tours, rescue demonstrations, and family activities, the Dale City Farmers Market on October 4, the Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House on October 10 with fire-truck tours and family activities, and Clifton Day in the historic village of Clifton on October 11. One scheduling note for downtown: after a September 4 incident at a packed downtown Manassas event, the city and Historic Manassas Inc. paused the October First Friday "Pumpkin Palooza" while they review downtown event safety, so check with organizers on the status of First Fridays. Prince William County Parks and Recreation stays busy through October as well, with events like the yard sale at Pat White Center at Ben Lomond on October 3. These are the moments that make this part of Virginia feel like home, and they are a big part of why families choose to put down roots here.

Looking at the emerging markets beyond the core NVAR counties, Culpeper County stands out with a median sale price of approximately $573,000 in May 2026, up 17% year-over-year. Homes are selling in about 39 days, and inventory is rising. Fauquier County shows a median price range of approximately $615,000 to $675,000, reflecting its premium rural setting with some moderation from year-ago levels. In Stafford County, the market is stabilizing after a period of adjustment. Zillow's average home value estimate sits at approximately $547,000, up 0.5% year-over-year (June 2026), with homes going to pending in about 11 days. Movoto shows a median list price of roughly $560,000. Inventory in Stafford has surged over 33%, making it one of the more buyer-friendly markets in the region.