Manassas & NOVA
Market Report.

GG's Fiduciary Assessment

The Mid-September 2026 Northern Virginia Housing Market

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As of mid-September 2026, the Northern Virginia real estate market is entering a new phase defined by the most dramatic inventory growth in years. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR) released its July 2026 market statistics on August 12 and its August figures on September 14, revealing a market that is fundamentally shifting. Notably, the Northern Virginia market is diverging from national trends: while the national median home price rose 2% year-over-year to $431,400, the NVAR region's median sold price of $750,000 declined 1.3% year-over-year from $760,000 in July 2025, reflecting the surge in lower-priced attached home sales rather than any broad price decline. Closed sales totaled 1,582 units, down 1.9% from a year ago. Total sales volume reached $1.43 billion, up 1.4% year-over-year, reflecting the mix shift toward more attached and condo sales. The headline story, however, is inventory: active listings surged to 3,025 units, up an extraordinary 19.6% year-over-year.

The latest available data for July 2026 shows several notable developments. This week's key development: We have moved through Labor Day weekend (Labor Day fell on Monday, September 7),the traditional turning point when the summer market gives way to the fall selling season. And it is a season worth watching. Early September through mid-October is widely recognized as the second-best listing window of the year in this region, after the mid-April to early-June peak, in part because federal fiscal-year hiring begins October 1, bringing a new wave of buyer demand into the Northern Virginia corridor. The latest Freddie Mac mortgage rate reading,delivered Thursday, Septemberer 3,,averaged 6.71%,up five basis points from the prior week,andthe next major rate decision for the housing market comes at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on September 15-16, with its decision due Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET. Heading into the FOMC meeting, markets now price roughly a one-in-two chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, and 30-year Treasury yields had been approaching 5.2% in anticipation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address on Friday, August 28, a speech markets were watching closely for any signal on the path of interest rates. For Northern Virginia home buyers and sellers, what matters most is whether mortgage rates respond in the days ahead; I will keep monitoring the reaction and share my analysis as the picture becomes clear. As of Monday, August 31, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage still held at approximately 6.66%, per The Mortgage Reports, steady to close out August. Thursday's Freddie Mac survey,released Septemberer 3,,delivered the 30-year fixed at 6.71%,and markets now head into the Septemberer 15-16 FOMC meeting pricing a divided committee,with odds commonly cited around a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Because it is a scheduled meeting, the Fed will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot,giving us the clearest picture yet of where policy sits headed into fall. Prince William County posted a median sold price of approximately $593,500 -- an 8% year-over-year increase -- with 602 active listings and homes averaging 25 days on market. New listings in the county are up 12% and closed sales surged 40% year-over-year, signaling strong buyer demand even as inventory continues to grow. In Fairfax County, the median sold price for July reached approximately $775,000, essentially flat year-over-year, with active house inventory running 17% to 20% above August 2025 levels per Bellacasa Partners -- the largest year-over-year increase so far in 2026. Roughly 42% of Fairfax City homes sold above list price, according to local data. In Loudoun County, the median sold price held around $815,000 for July, reinforcing its position as the region's strongest appreciation market. Early August data from RaisetheBarDMV (Aug 19, 2026) shows the Loudoun median at approximately $813,000, up 7.4% year-over-year, with average days on market at 21 days. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved to 6.69% as of early August 2026 according to Freddie Mac's most recent survey (week ending August 6), and the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at its July 28-29 meeting in a divided 9 to 3 vote.

This week's update (September 15, 2026): The headline news arrived Monday: NVAR released its August 2026 market statistics on September 14, and the numbers confirm the inventory story continued. Region-wide, closed sales totaled 1,324 in August, down 8.0% year-over-year, while the median sold price rose about 2% year-over-year, per NVAR. The release was headlined "Northern Virginia Inventory Story Continues in August as Condos and Attached Homes Lead Growth," extending the trend that defined July: more choices for buyers, led by condos and attached homes, with prices holding firm even as the pace of sales slows toward a more normal rhythm. On the rate front, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 10 averaged 6.76% for the 30-year fixed, up from 6.71% the prior week and well above the 6.35% reading of a year earlier, with the 15-year fixed averaging 6.09%. The reading keeps rates squarely in the mid-to-upper 6% band the region has seen all year. It also sets up an eventful week: the Federal Reserve's rate decision lands Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, and because it is a scheduled meeting, the Committee will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Heading in, market expectations have moved meaningfully: CME FedWatch has shown roughly a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at this meeting, up from about one-in-three odds in the first week of September, and J.P. Morgan strategists have shifted to expect a hike. The fed funds rate has sat at 3.50% to 3.75% since December 2025, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market resilient with unemployment near 4.1%. Whichever way the decision lands, the regional story is unchanged: inventory at its highest level in years, and a Prince William County value proposition that gives buyers more leverage than this market has offered in half a decade. Prince William Association of Realtors data for August is expected imminently, and I will publish it the day it arrives.

For families with school-age children, the back-to-school season is in full swing. Manassas City Public Schools started the 2026-2027 school year on Wednesday, August 12, in mid-August. Loudoun County Public Schools started on August 17 in mid-August. Prince William County Public Schools started Monday, August 24, and the school year is now fully underway. While the window to close before the first day of school has narrowed for traditional financed purchases, families can still close by mid-to-late September and enroll their children within the first few weeks. The school systems in this region are accustomed to families moving in year-round, especially given the high volume of military and professional relocations.

The inventory surge is being driven overwhelmingly by condos and attached homes. Condo inventory soared 41.1% year-over-year to 1,274 units, while attached (townhome) inventory rose 33% to 617 units. Detached single-family home inventory actually declined 2.5% year-over-year, underscoring the bifurcated nature of the market: buyers seeking a single-family home still face constrained supply, while condo and townhome shoppers have more options than they have seen in half a decade. Average days on market across the NVAR region reached 21 days in July, up from 20 days a year ago - a modest increase reflecting the same normalization trend. For context, this remains an extremely fast market by historical standards; a 21-day average would have been considered a strong seller's market in any year before 2020.

The NVAR Mid-Year 2026 Regional Housing Market Forecast, released June 24, projects continued price appreciation of 1.5% in Fairfax County, 3.3% in Prince William County, 3.9% in Arlington, and 4.2% in Loudoun for detached single-family homes. These projections reflect a market that is normalizing -- not crashing -- with demand supported by Northern Virginia's highly educated workforce, strong quality of life, and sustained desire for homeownership. The forecast notes that federal workforce reductions and broader economic uncertainty have tested the region, but the fundamentals remain solid.

In Prince William County, the median sold price has risen to approximately $593,500, reflecting a notable 8% year-over-year increase. The county remains one of the strongest value propositions in the entire Washington metro area, attracting buyers priced out of Fairfax and Loudoun counties. Average days on market in Prince William County sits at roughly 25 days, giving buyers more time to evaluate options than they have had in years. Inventory in the county is up over 30% year-over-year, a significant improvement that is shifting negotiating leverage back toward buyers. The Manassas market specifically posted a median sale price of approximately $492,000 in Q2 2026, up 5.7% year-over-year, and commercial real estate vacancy in the city dropped to 3.9%.

Fairfax County posted a strong first half of 2026, with 6,289 closed sales and an average sales price of $928,075, up 5% year-over-year. The median sales price reached $780,000, up 2% from a year ago. For July, the median price moderated to approximately $775,000, flat year-over-year - still a sign that demand remains solid even as inventory grows and prices stabilize.

Mortgage rates have been a defining factor throughout 2026, and the latest data as of August 14 shows a slight easing from the prior week. Fortune reported the national 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.614% on August 14 (down 9 basis points from a week earlier), while Forbes pegged the Virginia average at 6.662%. In a notable local data point, McLean topped the entire BrightMLS mid-Atlantic service area for luxury home sales in Q2 2026, a testament to the strength of Northern Virginia's premium market despite the broader shift toward more attached homes (Northern Virginia Magazine, Aug 4). Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending August 6, 2026) had the 30-year at 6.69%, up from 6.66% the prior week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.01% per Freddie Mac. For Virginia-specific borrowers, Bankrate reported the Virginia 30-year fixed rate at 5.625% (APR 5.790%) as of August 14, while the Bankrate national average 30-year fixed stood at 5.623% (APR 5.790%). For military buyers using their VA loan benefit, Veterans United reported the 30-year fixed VA purchase rate at 5.875% as of August 14, 2026 - roughly a 0.8% advantage over conventional loans. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted in early August that the housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options. Despite the week-to-week fluctuations, the overall stability through the first half of 2026 - rates neither spiking above 7% nor dropping below 6% - has given buyers and sellers a more predictable baseline for planning their next move. Markets now price a 44% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, per Polymarket.

FOMC Update (July 29, 2026): The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of its July 28-29 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. The decision was not unanimous -- the vote was 9 to 3, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting: Beth M. Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie K. Logan (Dallas), each preferring to raise the target range by 25 basis points. In its statement, the FOMC said that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. On inflation, the Committee stated it remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. At his press conference, Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized: There is no soft inflation target - there is only a target, and it is 2 percent. For homebuyers, the divided vote introduces a new element of uncertainty: the hawks are gaining influence, and a rate increase at a future meeting cannot be ruled out. However, the steady Fed posture still reinforces the current rate environment -- mortgage rates are unlikely to drop sharply in the near term, but the stability we have seen through the first half of 2026 looks set to continue.

Key dates ahead: The FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting were released on Wednesday, August 19. The minutes reveal important details about the internal debate among committee members, particularly the perspectives of the three dissenting members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) who preferred a 25-basis-point hike. Early analysis suggests the internal divide on the FOMC has widened, with the hawks gaining influence. Markets will parse the minutes for any signals about whether the committee is moving closer to a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting.

Market Update: Bellacasa Partners Mid-August 2026 Report. The latest report from Bellacasa Partners (mid-August 2026) confirms that Northern Virginia's active inventory continues to build substantially across the region. While buyer activity remains solid -- new contracts in Fairfax County have closely tracked 2025 levels since June -- the growing inventory is giving buyers more choice and leverage than in recent years. Days on Market are increasing, and buyers are taking longer to make decisions. This normalization trend is healthy for the market in the long term, even as it requires sellers to be more strategic about pricing and presentation. In Loudoun County, median prices continue to hold firm at approximately $813,000 (up 7.4% year-over-year per early August data from RaisetheBarDMV). The county received $200 million from the NVTA on August 3, 2026 for a new collector road, a significant infrastructure investment. On the policy front, the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors voted 6-1 to direct staff to prepare a moratorium item on new data center applications, reflecting growing community concerns about the industry's footprint in the region's 'Data Center Alley.' On the central banking calendar, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs from Thursday, August 27 through Saturday, August 29 at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming. This is the most influential central banking conference in the world, and this year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address on Friday morning, August 28. Warsh -- who took office on May 22 replacing Jerome Powell -- has characterized his tenure as a "regime change" for the Fed and has signaled a "big picture" approach to his remarks that goes beyond the latest economic data. Markets were watching for any signals on the future path of interest rates, though analysts cautioned leading up to the event that Warsh might not provide a clear rate signal. For Northern Virginia home buyers and sellers, the Jackson Hole message matters: any hawkish surprise from Warsh's speech could nudge mortgage rates higher, while a measured, data-dependent tone could reinforce the current rate stability.

On the mortgage rate front, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week ending September 3,2026) reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.71%, up five basis points from 6.66% the prior week and up from 6.50% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.04%. NerdWallet (August 20) reported a 30-year fixed APR of approximately 6.51%. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted that housing affordability has improved from a year ago, and recent increases in purchase and refinance applications suggest borrowers are responding to even modest rate changes. Yahoo Finance reported the national average at approximately 6.51% as of August 19. For Virginia-specific borrowers, NerdWallet reports a 30-year fixed rate of approximately 6.55% APR (as of August 7). Military buyers continue to benefit from the VA loan advantage, with Veterans United reporting a 30-year fixed VA purchase rate of 5.875% as of August 19, roughly 0.80% below conventional rates. Bankrate's Virginia survey shows a 30-year fixed rate of approximately 5.625% (APR 5.790%), though these lower advertised rates typically reflect the most creditworthy borrowers with substantial down payments. The rate environment remains stable in the mid-6% range -- neither spiking above 7% nor dropping below 6% -- which gives buyers a predictable baseline for planning their home purchase.

Across the broader region, Northern Virginia is experiencing an extraordinary $12 billion in new development in 2026, spanning technology, healthcare, and infrastructure projects. Major developments include Tysons Corner's The Boro Phase 2, the Rivana at Innovation Station mixed-use project near Dulles, and Dulles Airport's Concourse E expansion (Colgan Team, TeamDDA). These investments reflect strong confidence in the region's long-term growth trajectory and will create jobs, improve transit access, and support property values across the corridor.

On the policy side, a significant change took effect on August 3, 2026: the FHA's Limited Review shortcut for condo financing was retired. Condo projects with more than 10 units must now go through Full Review, adding complexity to condo purchases and extending the timeline of condo transactions. This change makes it even more important for buyers to work with a knowledgeable lender early in the process to verify that their target condo community is FHA-approved. For townhome and single-family buyers, this change does not apply.

On the development front, Prince William County continues to see significant new construction activity. At the former Regal Cinemas site in Manassas, the Parkridge West development is constructing 162 new townhomes and condos, with first deliveries in spring 2026 and full completion expected by 2027. In Bristow, the Thomas Farm development -- approximately 350 homes -- has been advanced by the planning commission. Looking west, the Board of County Supervisors has advanced plans for nearly 4,000 new homes in western Prince William County, though this move went against staff recommendations. More than 1,000 additional homes are planned across multiple communities including Grayson Overlook in Gainesville (210 single-family homes), King's Grove in Woodbridge (239 stacked homes), and projects in Manassas and Nokesville. The county also broke ground on an $81 million interchange project at Prince William Parkway and Minnieville Road to improve capacity and mobility along this heavily traveled corridor. On the conservation front, the county extended the application period for its Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) program through September 30, 2026, giving landowners additional time to apply. The program aims to preserve farmland and open space, balancing PWC's growth with conservation.

Loudoun County Public Schools started the 2026-2027 school year on Monday, August 17 in mid-August. Prince William County Public Schools started Monday, August 24, and the school year is now fully underway. For families still searching for a home in time for the school year, there is still a window: closing by mid-to-late September and enrolling shortly after the start date is a well-established pattern in this region, especially given the high volume of military and professional relocations. I cover this in detail in my Back-to-School Home Buying Timeline.

On the local policy front, Prince William County secured $45 million in Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) funding on July 28, 2026, for transportation improvements. This award builds on the earlier $295 million NVTA allocation announced earlier in July for four major regional projects, including the Van Buren Road North Extension (Route 234 to Cardinal Drive, $179 million) and the Route 15 Railroad Overpass and Improvements ($65 million). These investments directly benefit homeowners by reducing commute times, improving access to major corridors, and supporting long-term property values. For buyers considering Prince William County, this infrastructure commitment is a strong signal that the county is investing in the quality of life that makes this area such a compelling choice.

In another positive development for homeowners, the Prince William County Board of County Supervisors adopted the FY2027 budget in April 2026 with a reduced real estate tax rate of $0.865 per $100 of assessed value, down from $0.906 the previous year. The rate reduction lowers the average residential tax bill by approximately $56 annually. Combined with the county's median home price of approximately $593,500 -- among the most accessible entry points in the core NVAR counties -- this tax relief strengthens Prince William County's position as the top value play in the Washington metro area.

On the community calendar, August has been a busy month across Prince William County. The 77th Annual Prince William County Fair wrapped up on August 8 with carnival rides, rodeo, demolition derby, and family entertainment. National Night Out on August 4 brought neighborhoods together with first responders. The 7th Annual Salvadoran Festival was held on August 16 at the Harris Pavilion in Manassas. The Los Kjarkas concert and Rippon Lodge Bug and Bird Day drew families to Woodbridge, and the Battle of Kettle Run Anniversary Tours marked a weekend of local history. Yesterday, National Park Free Entrance Day (August 25) offered free admission to all national parks including Great Falls Park, celebrating the 110th anniversary of the National Park Service. Looking ahead, the Latin Heritage Parranda at Manassas Park on August 29 features live Latin music, food vendors, and family-friendly entertainment. La Original Banda El Limon performs on August 30 at the Prince William County Fairgrounds. First Friday returns on September 4 in downtown Manassas with live music and vendors. Holy Family Fun Festival runs September 4-5 in Dale City with rides, games, and food. The Gathered on Center ribbon cutting in Historic Downtown Manassas showcases the area's newest gathering space. Arts Alive! at the George Mason University Science and Technology Campus on September 12 brings a free community arts festival featuring live performances and hands-on activities,food trucks,a wine and beer garden,and a headline set fromthe Capitol Fools comedy troupe,withthe festival running from ​10 AM to 5 PM. World War II Weekend at Rippon Lodge on September 12 offers living history demonstrations, and the 6th Annual Community Fair at Sean Connaughton Plaza in Woodbridge includes police department activities and resources. The Manassas International Food Festival returns on September 19 with Greek, Ukrainian, Slavic, and American cuisine, while An Evening with Bernadette Peters performs that same evening at the Hylton Performing Arts Center. The Edgar Rohr Memorial Car Show on September 19 brings automotive enthusiasts to the community. The Manassas Latino Festival follows on September 26 at the Harris Pavilion. The NVA Thai Street Food & Culture Festival is set for September 27 at the Manassas Museum Lawn. The Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee returns on October 3. The Labor Day weekend itself is packed across the county: on Friday, September 4, First Friday brings live music and the DORA to Historic Downtown Manassass; on Saturday, September 5, the Ornery Bristow Crab Feast takes over the Ornery Beer Company taproom in Bristow,anda Ghost Doctors ghost-hunting tour explores Manassass; on Sunday, September 6,families can enjoy the Baby Goat and Bunny Bottle Feed at Little Goat Farm at the Lake,andhe Manassass Symphony Orchestra performs duringthe holiday weekend. These events reflect the strong community fabric that makes Prince William County such a desirable place to call home.

Looking further into the season, the mid-to-late September and October calendar is filling in nicely. 2 Silos Brewing Company's Oktoberfest runs September 18-20 in Manassas with German beer, food, and live entertainment, and Oktoberfest Weekend at Eavesdrop Brewery follows September 19-20 in Manassas with beer, live music, local vendors, and food. Cox Farms Fall Festival in Centreville opens September 19 and runs through November 8, a rite of autumn for families across Northern Virginia. The Hylton Performing Arts Center in Prince William County launches its 2026-2027 season this month with dance, music, and theater, and the Manassas Latino Festival returns to the Harris Pavilion on September 26 to close Hispanic Heritage Month. In Manassas Park, Last Fridays at Park Central Plaza returns September 25 with food, live music, and vendors, and the Park Central Farmers Market runs Saturdays from 9 AM to 1 PM through October. October brings the 43rd annual Historic Manassas Fall Jubilee on October 3, the Vienna Oktoberfest the same day, billed as one of Northern Virginia's largest free fall festivals in its 17th year, the Dale City Farmers Market on October 4, the Manassas Park Fire and Rescue Open House on October 10 with fire-truck tours and family activities, and Clifton Day in the historic village of Clifton on October 11. Prince William County Parks and Recreation stays busy through October as well, with events like the yard sale at Pat White Center at Ben Lomond on October 3. These are the moments that make this part of Virginia feel like home, and they are a big part of why families choose to put down roots here.

Looking at the emerging markets beyond the core NVAR counties, Culpeper County stands out with a median sale price of approximately $573,000 in May 2026, up 17% year-over-year. Homes are selling in about 39 days, and inventory is rising. Fauquier County shows a median price range of approximately $615,000 to $675,000, reflecting its premium rural setting with some moderation from year-ago levels. In Stafford County, the market is stabilizing after a period of adjustment. Zillow's average home value estimate sits at approximately $547,000, up 0.5% year-over-year (June 2026), with homes going to pending in about 11 days. Movoto shows a median list price of roughly $560,000. Inventory in Stafford has surged over 33%, making it one of the more buyer-friendly markets in the region.