Early September 2026 NOVA Market Pulse: Rates Tick Up, the FOMC Looms,anda Full Fall Event Calendar
Welcome to September. The holiday weekend has come and gone, the school year is fully underway across Prince William County, and Northern Virginia is settling into its autumn rhythm. If you were waiting to see how the market would greet Labor Day, the early signals are now in: mortgage rates have ticked up to just above 6.7%, the Federal Reserve's September decision is less than two weeks away, and the region's inventory story remains the defining theme. Here is my early-September pulse, the data worth watching, and the community events I have my eye on in the weeks ahead.
I believe informed clients make better decisions, so I share what I can verify from the latest published data and flag what is still ahead. As always, my goal is to take the uncertainty out of buying or selling a home, one clear data point at a time.
Mortgage Rates Tick Up: The Latest Freddie Mac Reading
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday, September 3, 2026 reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.71%, up from 6.66% the prior week and up from 6.50% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.04%. The move was modest, but it is worth watching: rates have spent most of 2026 oscillating in a narrow band around the mid-6% range, and each tick matters when you are sizing a monthly payment.
What comes next hinges largely on the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, with the policy decision due Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Because this is a scheduled meeting, the Committee will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, giving us the clearest picture yet of where policy sits headed into fall. Heading into the meeting, markets have priced a divided committee, with odds leaning slightly toward a quarter-point hike, commonly cited around a 50 percent chance, and a meaningful probability of holding steady. After the rate decisions were split votes in June and July, the September meeting has taken on added significance for anyone planning a home purchase or sale.
The Inventory Story Continues: Newest Published Data
The most recent region-wide statistics from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors remain the July 2026 release, published August 12,2026. It showed a region that is rebalancing:active listings reached 3,025 units, up 19.6% year-over-year, with condo inventory surging +41.1% and attached home inventory up +33%. The region's median sold price came in at $750,000, down 1.3% year-over-year, in part because the mix has shifted toward lower-priced attached homes rather than any broad price decline. Notably, months of supply rose to 2.13, up 14.8% from July 2025, a concrete sign that buyers have more room to breathe. (The NVAR region does not include Prince William County, whose data is tracked separately by the Prince William Association of REALTORS; August figures for both are expected, typically published mid-September, and I will share them as soon as they are released.
In Prince William County, the most recent published data from PWAR is for June 2026, and it underscores strong momentum:closed sales totaled 663, up 18.2% year-over-year, while active listings reached 935, up 21%, the highest June inventory in five years. More homes on the market, more sales closing: that is a healthy, functioning market, and it continues to make Prince William County one of the best value propositions in the Washington metro area.
What the Big Picture Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers: the growing inventory combined with a still-fast market by historical standards means you have more choice than you have had in years, but you still need to be ready to act. Get pre-approved, compare neighborhoods with real data, and let the extra inventory work in your favor rather than rushing into a decision.
For sellers:, well-priced, well-presented homesare still attracting serious buyers, especially in the detached single-family segment, where supply remains constrained. But with more options on the market, pricing and preparation matter more than they did a year ago. Price it right from day one, invest in staging and photography, and you can sell with confidence rather than chasing the market down.
September's Community Calendar: Reasons to Get Out and Connect
As the weather cools and the leaves begin to turn, September is packed with reasons to enjoy this community. Here is a snapshot of what is coming up:
- Arts Alive!, Saturday, September 12,,near Manassass, a free community arts festival co-sponsored by Prince William County featuring live performances and hands-on activities. A favorite of mine every year.
- WWII Weekend at Rippon Lodge, September 12-13,,2026, Woodbridge, living history demonstrations and family-friendly history programming.
- Oktoberfest at 2 Silos Brewing, September 18-20,,2026, Manassass, German beer, food, and live entertainment.
- Cox Farms Fall Festival, September 19 through November 8,,2026, Centreville, a beloved family tradition with pumpkins, hayrides, and seasonal fun.
- Middleburg Oktoberfest, Saturday, September 19,,2026, downtown Middleburg, beer gardens, German food, live music, and mountain-town charm.
- Occoquan Fall Arts & Crafts Show, September 26-27,,2026,,10 AM to 5 PM,,in Historic Occoquan,,with 300+ artisans,,live music,,and free admission.
- Manassass Latino Festival, Saturday, September 26,,2026,,11 AM to 6 PM at the Harris Pavilion,,celebrating music,,dance,,and food.
- Historic Manassass Fall Jubilee, Saturday, October 3,,2026,,the 43rd annual edition in Old Town Manassass,,with 100+ craft and community booths,,live music,,and family fun.
Further afield, the Waterford Fair (October 2-4,in the historic village of Waterford,,Vienna Oktoberfest and the City of Fairfax Fall Festival (October 10,,and Clifton Day (October 11` round out a strong October lineup across Northern Virginia. If you are new to the area, these events are the fastest way to understand why we love living here.
The Path Ahead
Next week brings two dates worth circling: the FOMC decision on September 16,,2026, which could move mortgage rates, and the expected release of August market statistics from NVAR and PWAR, which will tell us whether the inventory surge has held into fall. I will keep monitoring both and share my analysis as the picture becomes clear.
Whether you are buying, selling, or simply beginning to explore your options, I am here to help you make all the right moves with clarity and honesty. This market is full of opportunity for those who understand it, and I would welcome the chance to help you navigate it like family.