NVAR's September 2026 Market Report: Prices Rise 4.2% as NOVA Inventory Surges 31%
The freshest official numbers for Northern Virginia are now in. On Friday, October 16, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) released its September 2026 market statistics, and they show a region where prices are still climbing while inventory keeps building: the median sold price rose 4.2% year-over-year to $744,950, closed sales totaled 1,250, down 7.5% from September 2025, and active listings surged 30.7% to 3,477, the highest level in years. Here is what the verified numbers mean for buyers and sellers across Prince William County and the wider NOVA region, and how I would use them for your next move.
The September Numbers: Prices Firm, Sales Slow, Inventory Grows
NVAR's September release covers Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon, and Clifton. The headline is a market that keeps finding new inventory: months of supply rose 29.5% year-over-year to 2.5, still below the 5 to 6 months that typically marks a balanced market but the most choice buyers have had in years. New pending sales fell 16.2% to 1,204, total sales volume came to about $1.11 billion, down 8.7%, and average days on market held at 28 days, unchanged year-over-year. The one outlier was Alexandria, where the city median sale price fell 11.4% to $660,000 even as the region overall saw prices rise.
Fairfax County: Prices Up, Sales Slower
Within the NVAR region, Fairfax County's September median sold price came in at $749,750, up 5.6% year-over-year, with 897 closed sales, down 5.9% from a year earlier, per NVAR. The county's average sold price rose 3.0% to $903,940. The split by product type tells the story of the moment: the average single-family price rose about 2% to roughly $1.22 million, while the average attached-home price was essentially flat, a reminder that the detached-home segment remains the strongest while condo and townhome inventory builds.
Loudoun and the Surrounding Counties
In Loudoun County, September closed sales fell roughly 17.8% year-over-year per the Dulles Area Association of Realtors, continuing the region-wide slowdown, with the county's August median at $771,250. The value story remains in Prince William County, where PWAR's September 2026 release is the latest verified county-level data: a median sold price of $589,450, down 1.8% from the prior period, with buyers having more homes to choose from as inventory increased and closed sales eased. Prince William still buys meaningfully more home per dollar than Fairfax or Loudoun, and that gap is the region's clearest value proposition heading into the final months of the year.
Rates Hold at 7.40% as the Fed Meeting Nears
The rate backdrop sharpens the picture. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 15 held the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, the first pause after seven consecutive weekly increases, with the 15-year at 6.71% and the 30-year at 6.27% a year earlier. The pause followed a hot September CPI report (headline 3.7% year-over-year, core 2.6%), and markets now price roughly an 80% to 86% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates at its October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with the odds of a hike around 14% to 17%. The next Freddie Mac survey lands Thursday, October 22. For anyone financing a home, one steady week is not a trend, but it is the first sign the sharpest leg of the move may be behind us, and locking a rate you can live with still protects you.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the September numbers are encouraging on the inventory side. With active listings up 30.7% and months of supply at the highest level in years, you have more time for inspections and more room to negotiate, which is exactly why Prince William County still deserves a serious look. Being pre-approved is still critical in competitive detached-home segments, and locking in a rate protects you against the next move in either direction.
For sellers, the message is to price from today's data, not last spring's. With prices still rising region-wide but the pace of sales slowing and inventory climbing, a home priced and presented correctly on day one is the one being toured. The fall window through mid-October is in its final stretch, buoyed by the federal fiscal-year hiring wave, and the planning work for a spring listing, from pricing strategy to targeted improvements, starts now.
The Late-October Community Calendar
The market numbers matter, but they are not the whole story of living here. The Great Pumpkin Party at the Sharron Baucom Dale City Recreation Center lands Friday, October 23, alongside BOOnanza! at Baldwin Elementary. Saturday, October 24 brings Haunted Happenings trick-or-treating in Old Town Manassas, the Manassas Park Trunk-or-Treat at the Community Center, and Family Pumpkin Carving at Veterans Memorial Park. The Manassas Mall Trunk-or-Treat runs Wednesday, October 28, the City of Manassas Farmers Market continues Thursdays at the Harris Pavilion through October 29, and the Haunted Mini Golf at Locust Shade Park runs October 29-31. Halloween closes with Old Town Manassas Fall-O-Ween on the Manassas Museum Lawn on Saturday, October 31, 10 AM to 3 PM, with the Kids Halloween Costume Parade at 1 PM. Events are subject to change, so check the city and county calendars before you head out.
If you are weighing a move this fall, let us look at the numbers together before you decide. Between a rate lock while it protects you, a pricing plan built from today's data, and a timeline that fits your family, my job is to make sure you always know what comes next, the way I would for my own family.